Purcell Road – Are We There Yet?

Purcell Road, originally published in the News & Messenger article titled Residents speak out against widening Purcell Road

The recent Planning Commission work session on Purcell Road brought out some important points that could prove to be instructive as we move forward in this process and in future planning in general.

The main driver for this project is not local community traffic. The total new housing possible from undeveloped land in the area under current county recommendations is approximately 300 homes.

This is certainly not enough to require a new four lane highway when the Parkway already serves most of the undeveloped parcels. The driver is projected long term regional traffic increases.

There is already cut-through traffic on Purcell Road between Route 234 and Hoadly Road. Common sense dictates that four-laning Purcell and connecting it directly to the Parkway will only increase this cut-through situation, since faster speeds and a more direct path between Route 234 and the Parkway will be the result. Basically, build this road and they will come.

Yet One More Meeting on “Fixing” I-66 (June 8)

Topic: start of Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on multimodal transportation improvements within I-66 corridor, between Route 15 and I-495 Capital Beltway
Time:  Wednesday, June 8, anytime between 5:00-8:00pm
Location: Four Points by Sheraton motel, 10800 Vandor Lane, Manassas VA 20109

The cure for congestion requires tackling the basic problem – politicians continue to rezone land for new housing far, far from locations where those new residents will work.  The math is simple: more people commuting to jobs = more congestion.  More of the same ol’ same ol’ development pattern will not solve the problem.

However, there is no “stop growth” solution.   Government agencies and private-sector businesses are creating new jobs, people are moving to Northern Virginia – and our region continues to grow.  Economic development is a good thing; many regions would love to have problems like ours.

Still, no one wants our traffic nightmare.  There are two solutions to our congestion headache:
1) increase the number of jobs near where people live, to reduce commute times
2) locate new housing next to employment centers, to reduce commute times

Doing both makes sense.  Doing nothing about the basic problem makes no sense.  Just building more roads, without solving the housing/employment disconnect, does nothing to solve the problem.  Treating the symptom by widening I-66 or extending VRE to Haymaarket might provide short-term relief… but treating symptoms does not cure problems.  Putting a band-aid on a cancer does not cure the disease.

What Happens When the State Runs Out of Money for New Highway Construction?

Right now, the roads are still getting expanded.  Construction equipment, orange cones and new asphalt is a constant presence at the intersection of Hoadley Road and Prince William Parkway, and elsewhere in the county.

Hmmm… think Virginia can afford to widen existing highways and build new roads forever?

The answer is revealed in the FY2012-17 Six Year Secondary Road Plan for Prince William, which sets priorities and allocates funding for the roads with numbers greater than 600 (such as Route 619).   Key language is in Section II B of the plan that the Board of County Supervisors is scheduled to adopt on June 7:
VDOT Estimates  The current estimate for the FY12 Annual Allocation is $0.  There are no funds allocated to future years, so the plan will be used to re-prioritize projects within the plan with prior allocations.

There is no money for new secondary road projects for FY2012.  There is no money in FY13, FY14, FY15, FY16, or FY17.

New housing that will be built in the next 15 years, such as the Avendale development, will add more traffic to existing roads.  After this last spending surge and road construction, however, there’s no money in the pipeline to expand those roads ever again.  Congestion will just get worse and worse.

How did we get into this mess?

What Would Patrick Henry Say About the BiCounty Sprawlway?

On May 18, this Wednesday, the Virginia Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) will grease the skids for building a new 6-8 lane highway on the western edge of Manassas National Battlefield Park.  The CTB will designate a new North-South Corridor of Statewide Significance (CoSS) that – surprise! – aligns with the preferred route of the old Tri-County Parkway.  (A better name would be BiCounty Sprawlway.)

This North-South CoSS is more than just a line on paper; the fix is in to build this road.  The 2011 General Assembly approved a $4 billion pot of mostly-borrowed money to finance one final surge of roadbuilding.  VDOT has already warned that in a few years, the income from the gas tax will be inadequate and VDOT won’t have enough money for maintenance of existing roads – but hey, let’s build a few more before anyone pays attention. 

Our streams and natural areas are being blasted away by new development spawned by new roads.  Fortunately, people who understand the link between land use, transportation, and conservation are expressing concerns, especially the Loudoun Board of County Supervisors.  People who care about the size of government and rising taxes are starting to object to the long-term costs of the traditional roadbuilding game in NOVA’s suburbs.

The developers who will benefit from this project have tasked their lobbyists and political friends to sell this road to the citizens of Northern Virginia.  What’s wrong with their sales pitch? Several things stand out:
- all roads are not equally good for reducing congestion; a north-south road will not fix an east-west commuter problem. We need to fix the existing headache of getting from Gainesville to Fairfax/DC.  A road from I-66 to Route 50 (west of Pleasant Valley!) won’t help the problem.
- designation of the CoSS will be followed swiftly by commitment of funds from the $4 billion transportation fund authorized by the 2011 General Assembly, so the CoSS designation is a key decision in the go/no-go process
- maybe a new road will bring jobs to Gainesville, but it’s more likely to create more jobs near Dulles airport. Prince William will continue to export its workers daily, commercial development will grow in Loudoun instead of Prince William, and residential property taxes in Prince William will stay high
-   flinging unlimited funding to build every possible road is not realistic, so money spent on the BiCounty Sprawlway will cause some other worthy project to be left unbuilt.

Three questions to ask yourself, even if you don’t care one hoot about conserving streams:

North-South Corridor of Statewide Significance (CoSS): Spending *Your* Money for *Their* Benefit

The old “what to do about suburban traffic congestion” debate has a new term:  the North-South Corridor of Statewide Significance (CoSS).  The debate also has a new wrinkle, the recent political reaction to proposals for increasing public debt.

Right now, debate is white-hot regarding the national debt – do you think the government should borrow even more money now, in order to expand government services? – but many people do not realize the state of Virginia is still expanding its borrowing in 2011.   The state is going deeper in debt, borrowing money to build new roads, while simultaneously manipulating the accounting to postpone paying for Virginia’s $17.6 billion unfunded liability for pensions. 

At the end of the February 16th meeting of the Commonwealth Transportation Board, the Secretary of Transportation revealed plans to build the road known variously by state/local agencies as the Western Transportation Corridor, Tri-County Parkway, Bi-County Parkway, and the Road to Dulles.  (The Manassas National Battlefield Bypass has been mixed up in the discussion as well.  A better name for the proposed road might be Bi-County Sprawlway…)

The latest game is to for the Virginia Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) to designate a CoSS in western Prince William/Loudoun counties on May 18.  A CoSS designation may allow the state to run roughshod over local land use plans, equivalent to the Federal government’s National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors (NIETCs) that allow Federal agencies to ignore state/local objections of new powerlines.  In particular, the developer community and the CTB are looking for ways to overcome the resistance of the elected officials in Loudoun County.

We’re not talking about increasing government debt for expanding health care, welfare benefits, or any services to help current residents.  We’re not talking about more debt to improve the work commute for current residents.  We’re talking about increasing state debt to build roads in western Prince William/Loudoun counties in order to subsidize new development and attract new residents - which creates new congestion.

Is more debt to divert development away from the Route 1 corridor, so Gainesville gets the growth, really the best way to deal with our financial challenges today?  Hmmm…. when do you think the government should stop borrowing money to subsidize more private developments like Avendale?

Is Commuting by Car from Culpeper More Important Than a VRE Extension to Haymarket?

There’s a steady drumbeat of “reports” that always call for Virginia taxpayers to subsidize new roads. In the past few years, even a few transit projects have been added to the wish list.  Proposals to extend the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) to the edge of the Rural Area at Haymarket, over objections of town officials, is one example of encouraging more sprawl through transit.

In TRIP’s Top 50 Surface Transportation Projects to Support Economic Growth in Virginia, the top 10 projects alone are projected to cost $30 billion (that’s billion, with a “b”).  However, the VRE extension is way down at #22 on the list of “most needed surface transportation projects to support economic development in the state.”

Number 10 on the sprawling wish-list: spending $53 million to add two lanes to the eastern bypass around Warrenton.

The “Town Center” at Innovation – and 1,744 More Residential Units on the Side?

Update: Board of County Supervisors has approved spending another $50,000 for a “new real estate market analysis”  – see County Dusts Off Town Center Plans at Tech Park.

The Route 1 corridor and Innovation offer the greatest potential for smart growth in Prince William.   Transit-oriented development is the only way to reduce future traffic congestion, as the county’s population grows by over 30% during the next 20 years.  That’s a lot of extra cars, and growth=congestion unless we develop differently.

Prince William officials blather about smart growth, but speak with a forked tongue because they keep approving same-old-dumb-growth projects such as Avendale.  Innovation offers a rare opportunity where the county might walk the talk, where housing really may be co-located with jobs and public facilities to create a live-work-play community.

In coordination with GMU and private landowners, Prince William County is planning another Comprehensive Plan Amendment (CPA) for Innovation, modifying the existing Sector Plan.  In addition to the GMU facilities, under the “Anchored Town Center” proposal up to 900 residential units plus two hotels could be built between the current campus and Route 234 Bypass.

Look close, however, and you’ll notice in the consultant report that 646 more housing units are also being proposed in District 1 and 1,098 housing units are proposed in District 2 between the campus and Wellington Road.  The current Sector Plan proposes Town Center Office/Research and Development in those areas – office development that generates local, do-not-need-to-commute-to-Fairfax-or-DC jobs.  The town center was in the old Sector Plan; the Comprehensive Plan Amendment is necessary to transform a chunk of Innovation from a job location into just another housing development.

Also, as noted in the News and Messenger article, developers might ask for taxpayers to finance their housing project by subsidizing the parking.  Taxpayers have already built the roads, stormwater, and other utilities at Innovation, but hey – why not ask for one more land use subsidy, since county officials seem incapable of negotiating for development that will create local jobs?

The four graphics below illustrate the proposals:

What Will $4 Billion in Transportation Funding Do In Prince William?

We are seeing the last gasps of the road building era in Virginia.  By selling assets such as the liquor stores, borrowing money, and rummaging in the sofa for spare change, we are witnessing the last governor who might get one last surge of road construction approved. 

The massive network of existing roads and bridges in Virginia will not get better with age; major increases in maintenance costs lie ahead.  Future tax increases for transportation will end up being redirected – no matter what the politicians promise - to maintain the current transportation infrastructure.  

Don’t count on Uncle Sugar for a bailout.  Federal funding for surface transportation is shrinking.  Fuel-efficient cars will pay less in gas taxes, while future inflation (as the economy recovers) will reduce buying power.  Watch what happens when Congress renews the six-year funding authorization (“SAFETEA-LU”) for surface transportation in 2011 – if discretionary spending will ever be cut to reduce the Federal deficit, $$$ for new roads will have to shrink.   

So how will this last $4 billion (if approved by the General Assembly) affect Prince William, Manassas, and Manassas Park?  Of the 900 proposed projects, don’t look for any funding to extend VRE to Gainesville/Haymarket.  There’s no money for extending 234 Bypass north from I-66 through the Rural Area to support new subdivisions in Loudoun County (the “Road to the Wrong Side of Dulles”).

The expensive projects in this last gasp are an additional $130 million to widen I-66 to Haymarket, and $30 million to widen Route 28 to Nokesville.  Those are the last big subsidies for sprawl development, reducing traffic congestion for people who choose to live far from their jobs but demand the government provide better roads to reduce the headache of the commute.

Once the well runs dry, almost all of the new roads in the future will be toll roads.

The Road to the Wrong Side of Dulles

Some things never change.  Prince William officials remain committed to the concept that traffic congestion will disappear and Class A office buildings will sprout all over the county, as soon as the state/Federal governments send $4 billion to the county so we can build all the roads on our Transportation Plan.

There are so many projects to improve traffic flow within Prince William, and so little funding.  Surprisingly, county officials chose to prioritize a road that will provide just minimal benefits to Prince William residents. 

The supervisors are poised to update the Strategic Plan so Prince William willl “take the leadership role” for extending Route 234 Bypass through the Rural Area to Loudoun, and ultimately to the west side of Dulles.  The design requires a complicated curly cue to get to the airport entrance on the east side, but it’s hard to believe county officials really care about getting people back and forth from Dulles.

End of an era: 75 years of road building peters out in Prince William

The Board of County Supervisors has adopted a new 2011-16 Six Year Road Plan, with priorities for new “secondary” roads (those with numbers 600 and higher).  For fiscal year 2010-11, Prince William will receive a token amount (less than $2,000).  The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT), which was supposed to fund such highways with state taxes since 1934, is running out of money for new highway construction. 

Pssst!  Funding for “secondary” highways is the first to disappear… but not the last.

Starting July 1, 2011, guess how many $$$ will be available for expanding or building new secondary roads in Prince William County?  Answer:  Zero.  Zilch.  Nada.  Nuttin’

So how will our Board of County Supervisors react to the new normal?